A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
